Student Enrollment Trends

District wide enrollment forecasted to increase by about 200 students to be over 24,800 by 2029/30

  • Elementary forecasted to increase by about 350 students
  • Middle School forecasted to increase by over 320 students
  • High School forecasted to decrease by over 470 students

Past, Current, & Future Enrollment

Projection Bar Chart

Key Variables of Statistical Analysis

2024/25 total enrollment was 24,676 students:

  • The District has decreased in total enrollment for the past ten years
  • From 2023/24 to 2024/25 the average of K-12 cohort gain was +53 students per grade level
  • 2024/25 enrolled the largest Kindergarten class over the past ten years with 1,531 students
  • Graduating senior class is larger than the incoming Kindergarten class which tends to decrease total enrollment

The number of live births have been decreasing

  • There have been less than 8,700 live births in the region for the past four years
  • With less births per year, the population under age 5 has decreased to less than 48,000 people
  • The District has experienced a net gain of transfer students for the past three years
  • Census data indicates an increasing population (+900 people per year the past four years)

Residential development is expected to continue in the district (over 7,200 potential units)

  • Five years into the current decade, the District has added almost 2,500 units to residential inventory almost surpassing the total unit production in the previous decade
  • As more single-family housing has been built, the generation of students from these units has decreased
  • Growth areas are created from existing land use, future land use, capital improvement plan, zoning, and city staff input

RSP divides the district into Planning Areas to statistically analyzed each neighborhood

  • Planning Areas are more granular than census block groups enhancing the statistical connection between students and geography
  • Each planning area had a different outlook based on key variables
  • Key variables are not all positive or negative -- each have a different impact on future outlooks